Week 4
Scheduled
Bears
Chicago
42%
vs
Jets
New York
58%
Slight Lean
CHI vs NYJbreakdown →
See why the model favors a side
Real-time breakdown of every game — injuries, form, travel, weather. See exactly where the model disagrees with the market.
Every pick is graded after the game. See our outright pick accuracy
Upset Radar
The market has these teams as underdogs. The model gives them a clearly better chance to win.
NFLSun, Oct 11 at 5:00 PM
CIN at MIA
Model favors MIA
MIA win chance
48%model21%market
27-point disagreement
ModelMarket (no vig)
NFLSun, Oct 4 at 5:00 PM
ARI at NYG
Model favors NYG
NYG win chance
71%model45%market
26-point disagreement
ModelMarket (no vig)
NFLSun, Oct 4 at 5:00 PM
TEN at BAL
Model favors TEN
TEN win chance
40%model15%market
25-point disagreement
ModelMarket (no vig)
Top Signals Today
Where our model and the market are furthest apart. Updated with every odds refresh.
Today's Board
Starting Soon
Next games starting soonest
High Confidence
Model gives one team 65%+ win probability
...
Scheduled
Dodgers
Los Angeles
76%
High Confidence
vs
Braves
Atlanta
24%
LAD vs ATLbreakdown →
Week 4
Scheduled
Seahawks
Seattle
76%
High Confidence
vs
Chargers
Los Angeles
24%
SEA vs LACbreakdown →
Week 4
Scheduled
Bills
Buffalo
75%
Strong Lean
vs
Patriots
New England
25%
BUF vs NEbreakdown →
Week 4
Scheduled
Texans
Houston
72%
Strong Lean
vs
Cowboys
Dallas
28%
HOU vs DALbreakdown →
Closest Matchups
Toss-ups: model sees it as nearly even
The weekly slate, and what we got wrong
Every Monday: the week's biggest games with our win probabilities, plus a plain review of last week's misses. One email a week, no tips.
Probabilities are information, not betting advice. Responsible gambling
Here's What You Get
Every game breaks down the factors driving the probability
NFL
Ravens
60%
vs
Titans
40%
60%40%
Home AdvantageFavors Home
Injury ImpactHigh Impact
Recent FormModerate
We Show Our Work
1
Track Everything
Injuries, weather, rest days, and head-to-head history. If it affects outcomes, we measure it.
2
Weight What Matters
Each sport gets its own model. Weather matters for NFL, back-to-backs matter for NBA.
3
Show the Why
You see which factors are pushing the odds, not just a number